Aviation Week's 2026-2036 Fleet and MRO Forecast projects a $1.6 trillion global commercial aviation maintenance market over the next decade, driven by accelerating fleet growth and a dominant narrowbody cycle.

Active commercial aircraft in service will grow from approximately 34,600 in 2026 to 45,000 by 2035, a 30 percent increase. Narrowbody aircraft will expand to 70 percent of the total commercial fleet by 2035 as airlines standardize around the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families.

Engine MRO represents the largest cost category, with North America accounting for $159 billion of the estimated $848 billion global engine MRO total projected through 2035. Airframe and component MRO, parts supply, and modifications make up the remainder of the $1.6 trillion market.

The outlook reflects compounding demand from return-to-service activity, aging narrowbody fleets entering heavy maintenance cycles, and growing third-party MRO contracts as airlines seek to monetize their own maintenance capacity.

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