Aviation Week's latest forecast projects maintenance, repair, and overhaul spending to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.6 percent over the next decade, below the mid to high single digit growth the sector has historically seen in steady periods. The outlook, discussed in an October 26, 2026, analysis by senior editor Sean Broderick, ties the slower pace to an expected rebound in new aircraft deliveries and a gradual rise in retirements.

About 600 aircraft are expected to be retired this year, according to Aviation Week figures. The forecast calls for retirements to average 942 per year through 2035, with a peak in 2031. Retirements of CFM56-powered aircraft, a key driver of engine shop visit demand, reached 221 as of October 20, or about 1.9 percent of the fleet. GE Aerospace has lowered its CFM56 retirement guidance for the year from a range of 2 to 3 percent.

On the supply side, the Aviation Week 2027 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast projects 1,860 new aircraft deliveries in 2027, topping the 1,792 delivered in 2018, the last full year before Airbus and Boeing faced supply chain or quality disruptions. U.S. carriers are part of that shift. Southwest Airlines plans 67 deliveries and 60 retirements this year, while United Airlines expects more than 100 narrowbody and about 25 widebody deliveries in 2027.

Aftermarket results remain firm for now. Collins Aerospace reported commercial aftermarket sales up 9 percent in the third quarter, with upgrades and modifications up 18 percent. Melius Research analyst Scott Mikus wrote in a mid-September note, "A replacement cycle is underway."

Source: Aviation Week - https://aviationweek.com/mro/supply-chain/mro-outlook-dont-shut-those-shop-floor-lights-just-yet