Boeing's commercial market outlook projects the global commercial aircraft fleet will nearly double over the next two decades, requiring approximately 43,000 new aircraft deliveries to meet traffic growth and replacement demand. The forecast, which covers the period through the mid-2040s, projects global passenger traffic growth averaging 3.5% annually, driven by expansion in Asia-Pacific markets and continued recovery in long-haul international routes.

In the near term, Boeing projects that MRO spending will grow proportionally with fleet size and age, with widebody maintenance particularly intensive as fleets operating since the 1990s and 2000s reach mid-life inspection thresholds. The 737 and 777 platforms, which represent the largest portions of the global in-service narrowbody and widebody fleets respectively, drive a disproportionate share of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance demand. US carriers operate a combined fleet of more than 6,000 narrowbody and widebody aircraft, making North America the largest single MRO market by volume.

Engine maintenance accounts for the largest share of MRO spending globally, with CFM56-powered 737s and LEAP-powered 737 MAX and A320neo variants entering high-time inspection intervals. Boeing's services division projects the commercial aftermarket will represent a cumulative $3.7 trillion market over the 20-year forecast horizon, with air transport MRO comprising the largest component.

Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook -- https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/