Boeing projects that North American operators will take delivery of 8,405 new commercial airplanes between 2026 and 2045, and that 6,275 of them, nearly 80%, will replace older aircraft. That is the highest replacement share of any region in the company's 2026 Commercial Market Outlook.

The forecast puts the North American fleet at 8,185 airplanes in 2025, rising to 10,315 by 2045. Boeing describes the region as the world's largest commercial aviation market, with the largest regional jet and freighter fleets. Because the market is mature, fleet growth is expected to average a modest 1.2% a year, while passenger traffic grows 2.7% annually.

Fleet age is a key driver of that replacement demand. The average North American single-aisle airplane is 16 years old, about four years above the global average, according to the outlook. Boeing links the region's large installed fleet and mature market to high replacement demand and a shift toward larger airplanes.

The mix of aircraft is also shifting. Single-aisle jets are expected to grow from 60% of the regional fleet today to nearly 70% by 2045. Regional jet capacity is down 20% since 2019, and Boeing expects the regional jet fleet to shrink by about half over the forecast period as airlines move flying to larger regional jets and small single-aisle airplanes.

Globally, Boeing forecasts 43,625 new deliveries and a fleet of 50,095 airplanes by 2045, with annual fleet growth of 3.0% and traffic growth of 4.0%. Mature regions, including North America, are expected to account for about 45% of new deliveries.

Source: Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2026-2045 -- https://www.boeing.com/content/dam/boeing/v2/products/commercial-market-outlook/downloads/2026-cmo-download.pdf