Boeing's 2026 Commercial Market Outlook, the company's annual long-term forecast of aviation demand, projects that global airlines and cargo carriers will need close to 44,000 new airplanes over the next 20 years to keep pace with rising passenger and freight traffic. The forecast puts the worldwide commercial fleet at more than 50,000 aircraft by 2045, up nearly 80 percent from where it stands today.

Roughly half of the new deliveries Boeing projects are expected to replace older-generation jets rather than add net capacity, as airlines swap in more fuel-efficient models to cut operating costs and meet sustainability targets. By 2045, Boeing expects fewer than 10 percent of previous-generation airplanes to remain in service worldwide.

The single-aisle segment accounts for the largest share of future demand. Boeing projects the global single-aisle fleet will nearly double to more than 36,000 jets, continuing to carry more than half of all global seat capacity on short-haul and domestic routes. The widebody fleet is expected to grow past 8,000 aircraft to support long-haul passenger service and air cargo capacity, while freighter demand, both newly built and converted from passenger jets, is projected to top 2,900 aircraft.

Boeing said passenger traffic is on pace to grow about 4 percent annually through 2045, doubling global air travel over the forecast period even as near-term disruptions such as the Middle East conflict shift some routing and destination choices without derailing the longer-term trend.

Source: Boeing - https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook