Boeing's 2026 Commercial Market Outlook projects air cargo traffic will grow about 3.7 percent annually through 2045, a pace the company says will outpace broader trade and economic growth over the same period. International freighter capacity rose 5 percent year to date in 2026 despite ongoing market disruptions, which Boeing points to as evidence of the resilience of global air cargo networks.

The 20 year forecast, covering 2026 through 2045, ties freighter demand to both rising cargo volume and the need to replace older aircraft with new-technology models. Boeing projects operators will need more than 2,900 production and converted freighters over the period, supporting demand tied to cross-border e-commerce, perishable goods and supply chain diversification.

Fleet efficiency is also reshaping how many airplanes the industry needs. Boeing estimates that without the efficiency and productivity gains delivered by newer jets, airlines would need about 9,000 additional airplanes to carry the same number of passengers projected for 2045. That figure shows how much of the coming replacement cycle is driven by fuel burn and operating cost improvements rather than passenger growth alone.

Carrier structure is shifting too. Boeing projects low-cost carrier fleets will grow nearly 4 percent annually, compared with 2.6 percent for network carriers, as affordable options expand in markets such as Latin America, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia. Airlines have added nearly 5,500 new airport pairs since 2015, a nearly 30 percent increase in network connectivity that has given passengers more direct routing options.

Boeing's outlook covers nearly 200 airlines and every commercial passenger jet with more than 30 seats, drawing on traffic and capacity analysis across more than 50 regional and inter-regional flows.

Source: Boeing - https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook