Total commercial aviation aftermarket revenue is projected at $139 billion for 2026, according to Aviation Week's forecast, continuing a climb that has reshaped the cost structure of fleet operations.

Engine work is absorbing the largest share of that spending. Engine maintenance is set to claim 53 percent of the 2026 total, up from 49 percent in 2025 and 46 percent in 2024. The seven-point shift over two years reflects shop visit schedules on newer engine types alongside continued heavy work on mature platforms, and it means more than half of aftermarket dollars now flow through a comparatively small number of qualified engine facilities.

The broader market has expanded faster than the fleet it supports. Global MRO demand reached $136 billion in 2025, an 8 percent increase from $126 billion in 2024. Annual MRO spending has risen 40 percent since 2019 while global capacity has grown roughly 10 percent, indicating that cost per unit of capacity has moved substantially higher.

Supply chain conditions account for part of that gap. Airlines paid approximately $3.1 billion in additional maintenance costs during 2025 attributable to supply chain constraints, covering expedited freight, part substitution, extended aircraft downtime, and leased replacement capacity.

Longer-range estimates place aftermarket spending near $193 billion by the end of the decade, close to double the 2019 level.

Source: Aviation Week Network - https://aviationweek.com/mro/supply-chain/early-2026-outlook-shows-mro-market-momentum-increasing