The commercial aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul market is projected to reach about 165.4 billion dollars by 2035, supported by rising engine maintenance demand, according to a market analysis from Astute Analytica. Near-term estimates place the 2026 market between roughly 88 billion and 101 billion dollars depending on the analyst, with most forecasts showing steady year-over-year growth from 2025 levels.

Engine work dominates the spending mix. Engine overhauls are expected to account for about 47 percent of total MRO market share, the largest single category, while airframe maintenance represents roughly 33 percent. The concentration in engine spend reflects the high cost and labor intensity of powerplant shop visits, which rise as new-technology engines enter heavy maintenance and older engines stay in service longer.

Several structural drivers underpin the growth trajectory. Aging fleets, aircraft delivery backlogs, a deepening technician shortage, and supply chain volatility are reshaping how operators manage maintenance costs. Delivery delays keep older aircraft flying past their planned retirement, lifting demand for checks and component repairs across the installed base.

Analysts note that capacity, not demand, is the binding constraint for much of the forecast period. Shop slots, tooling, and skilled labor limit how much work the network can absorb, which supports pricing and pushes operators to book maintenance earlier. The combination of a growing global fleet and constrained aftermarket capacity points to sustained expansion in MRO spending through the next decade.

Source: Astute Analytica via Yahoo Finance - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commercial-aircraft-mro-market-projected-180800522.html