Total commercial MRO sales are forecast to rise 10.9% in 2026 to reach $139 billion in global aftermarket revenue, according to Aviation Week Network's annual market forecast. Engine maintenance leads the growth with an 11.7% increase, while component work expands 11.6%. Engine spending will claim a 53% share of total commercial aftermarket revenue in 2026, up from 49% in 2025 and 46% in 2024.

The engine-heavy skew reflects deferred overhaul backlogs that built through the pandemic and a growing installed base of high-thrust narrowbody powerplants entering their first major shop visit cycles. Overall annual MRO spending has already risen 40% since 2019 to support only 10% more global capacity, illustrating the disproportionate cost inflation running through the aftermarket.

Supply chain disruptions remain a significant cost driver. Airlines paid approximately $3.1 billion in additional maintenance costs tied to supply chain constraints in 2025, plus another $1.4 billion in excess inventory accumulated as a buffer against parts shortages. Those costs migrate into MRO pricing as shops pass through higher material and labor costs.

The 10-year forecast extends the growth story: active in-service commercial aircraft are projected to grow to 45,000 units by 2035 from just over 34,600 today, with the global fleet expanding at a 3% compound annual growth rate. For MRO operators in the Americas, including Southeast facilities serving as maintenance hubs for major carriers, the demand pipeline is the strongest in the postwar era.