A new IATA study, produced with Emerton, projects a sharp rise in engine maintenance volume over the next 15 years as airlines expand their fleets of latest-generation single-aisle jets. The analysis focuses on CFM LEAP and Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan engines, the two dominant powerplants for the current generation of narrow-body aircraft, including US carriers' Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX fleets.

Annual engine shop visits for LEAP engines are forecast to climb from roughly 600 to 800 in 2025 to more than 5,000 by 2040. GTF shop visits are projected to rise from about 1,000 to more than 2,000 over the same period. Single-aisle engine deliveries totaled 2,000 units in 2024, split between 800 GTF and 1,200 LEAP engines. Between 2030 and 2040, annual deliveries are expected to hold near 3,700, made up of about 1,200 GTF and 2,500 LEAP engines.

The report also found that grounded GTF-powered aircraft peaked at 648 in March 2025, representing 28% of the in-service GTF fleet, as operators waited on shop visits, spare engines, or parts. IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the bottlenecks are disrupting airline operations and will worsen without changes to parts availability, repair access, and aftermarket competition as the fleet expands.

The findings point to sustained pressure on engine maintenance capacity through 2040, with shop visit volume for both engine families expected to multiply several times over from current levels.

Source: IATA -- https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/06-24-urgent-action-needed-to-ease-engine-mro-bottlenecks/