Engine maintenance demand is on track for a steep climb that the International Air Transport Association warns will strain repair capacity. Annual shop visits for LEAP engines are forecast to rise from around 600 to 800 in 2025 to more than 5,000 by 2040, while shop visits for geared turbofan engines are projected to grow from roughly 1,000 to more than 2,000 over the same period.

The surge stems from durability issues on the newest engine families. Reduced time on wing means engines return to the shop sooner, and limited spare engine availability leaves airlines holding aircraft out of service while they wait for overhaul slots. IATA has called for urgent action to ease the bottlenecks, which it says are creating costly operational challenges for carriers.

The broader maintenance market continues to expand. One industry estimate places overall MRO spending near 97 billion dollars in 2026, up from 91 billion dollars in 2025, with aging fleets, delivery backlogs, a deepening labor shortage, and supply chain volatility all adding pressure.

For U.S. carriers that operate large fleets of LEAP and geared turbofan powered narrowbodies, the rising shop visit forecasts translate into longer maintenance lead times and tighter planning. Added overhaul capacity from major providers is expected to absorb part of the demand, but the gap between need and available slots is projected to persist.

Source: International Air Transport Association - https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/06-24-urgent-action-needed-to-ease-engine-mro-bottlenecks/