The global commercial aircraft fleet will grow from roughly 30,046 planes in 2026 to about 41,135 by 2036, a 3.2 percent compound annual growth rate, according to Oliver Wyman's Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2026-2036. Narrowbody aircraft will lead that expansion, reflecting airline demand for efficient short and medium haul capacity.

Production constraints are limiting how fast that growth can happen. At the start of 2026, roughly 17,000 aircraft orders sat unfilled across manufacturer backlogs, a queue that will take more than 12 years to clear at current production rates. Airbus holds 49 percent of the order book and Boeing holds 38 percent, and both manufacturers have struggled to hit their monthly production targets. Airbus produced 54 A320 family aircraft per month at the end of 2025 against a stated goal of 75 by 2027, while Boeing's 737 output sits at an FAA approved rate of 42 per month, short of its 57 unit target for 2026.

With deliveries lagging demand, airlines are relying on older aircraft to fly more hours. The average age of the global fleet approached 13 years in 2025, about a year and a half older than in 2024, and utilization and passenger load factors both reached record highs during the year. That combination of an aging fleet and a lengthening delivery queue is reshaping how airlines plan maintenance schedules and capacity through the next decade.

Source: Oliver Wyman -- https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.html