The global commercial in-service aircraft fleet totaled approximately 30,046 aircraft at the start of 2026, according to Oliver Wyman's Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2026-2036. By the end of the forecast period, the fleet is expected to reach roughly 41,135 aircraft, a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%.

That growth rate lags pre-pandemic projections by six years due to persistent supply chain disruptions limiting annual aircraft production worldwide through at least 2030. More than 6,000 aircraft that would have been produced under pre-pandemic forecasts are now missing from the global fleet.

Narrowbody aircraft dominate new orders, reflecting airline demand for fuel efficiency. Airbus holds 49% of the global order book and Boeing holds 38%. India is expected to experience the fastest fleet growth rate at 7.1% CAGR through 2036, followed by the Middle East at 5%. North America's fleet growth will be slower, but maintenance intensity will remain high due to the age and utilization of existing aircraft.

MRO demand is projected to grow at a 3.3% CAGR through 2036, with engine MRO as the largest and fastest-growing segment. In regions with older fleets including North America, Western Europe, and Africa, maintenance spending will outpace fleet growth throughout the forecast period.

Source: Oliver Wyman -- https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.html