The Oliver Wyman Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast projects the worldwide commercial airliner fleet growing from just over 29,000 aircraft to 38,300 by the start of 2035. That is a 32 percent increase at a compound annual growth rate of 2.8 percent. The chart breaks the forecast out by aircraft class and shows narrowbodies carrying most of the expansion, with their share of the fleet rising from 62 percent to 68 percent over the period.

North America remains the largest single market in the forecast, with China, the Middle East and other emerging regions taking a larger share of global totals by 2035.

Production sits at the center of the projection. Aerospace manufacturers rolled out fewer than 1,300 aircraft in 2024, roughly 30 percent below the 2018 record of more than 1,800 units. Oliver Wyman projects annual output near 1,300 units in 2025, about 2,200 in 2029, and just above 2,400 by 2035. The unfilled order backlog stands above 17,000 jets, which at current build rates would take 14 years to clear.

The shortfall pushes maintenance demand up. Average fleet age has risen to 13.4 years from 12.1 years the prior year, and each aircraft is flying more hours to cover the gap. Annual utilization is projected to exceed 112 million flight hours by 2035, a 39 percent increase over 2024. Regulatory directives covering geared turbofan and LEAP engine inspections are expected to keep aircraft on the ground at intervals into 2027.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2025/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2025-2035.html