A new forecast from the Aviation Week Network projects record growth in engine maintenance, repair and overhaul spending as the global commercial aircraft fleet continues to expand. The preliminary outlook for the 2026 Commercial Fleet and MRO Forecast puts the active in-service fleet at a little more than 34,600 aircraft in 2026, growing at a compound annual rate of about 3 percent to reach roughly 45,000 aircraft by 2035.

Narrowbody aircraft are driving most of that expansion, with the segment forecast to grow at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate compared with 2.4 percent for widebody jets. Narrowbodies are expected to expand their share of the total fleet to 70 percent by 2035, up from 60 percent in 2026, as airlines lean on single-aisle jets for short and medium-haul routes.

On the maintenance side, engine work is claiming a growing slice of total spending. Engine maintenance is projected to account for 53 percent of the industry's 2026 commercial aftermarket revenue of 139 billion dollars, up from 49 percent in 2025 and 46 percent in 2024. Aviation Week's analysts expect total aftermarket MRO requirements across all categories to top 1.6 trillion dollars over the 2026 to 2035 period. CFM International's Leap engine family, which powers newer narrowbody jets from Boeing and Airbus, is expected to see its maintenance demand grow at a 13 percent compound annual rate over the coming decade as more Leap-powered aircraft reach the age where engines need heavy maintenance work.

Source: Aviation Week - https://aviationweek.com/mro/aircraft-propulsion/new-aviation-week-forecast-projects-record-engine-mro-growth