The global commercial airplane fleet will grow by nearly 80% to more than 50,000 aircraft by 2045, according to Boeing's 2026 Commercial Market Outlook.

Reaching that number takes roughly 44,000 new passenger jets and freighters over the next two decades, and Boeing projects that half of those deliveries will replace previous-generation aircraft. By 2045 the company expects fewer than 10% of the airplanes flying to be previous-generation models, a turnover rate that reshapes the maintenance workload for every repair station serving the fleet.

Single-aisle jets carry most of that growth. Boeing forecasts the single-aisle fleet will nearly double to more than 36,000 airplanes, operating over half of all global capacity, while widebody aircraft in service pass 8,000. Air cargo adds demand for more than 2,900 production and converted freighters, with cargo traffic growing about 3.7% a year.

Passenger traffic sits behind the whole forecast at 4% annual growth, which doubles global air traffic between 2026 and 2045. Mature markets including North America account for about 45% of forecast deliveries, and transitioning and emerging markets take the remaining 55%.

Staffing that fleet is a separate problem. Boeing's companion 2026 Pilot and Technician Outlook puts 20-year demand at 728,000 new maintenance technicians worldwide, alongside 674,000 pilots and 1,023,000 cabin crew. In the United States the pressure runs sharper than the global average: Oliver Wyman reports that about 41% of certified mechanics are over 60 years old and roughly 45,000 will retire within the decade.

Source: Boeing - https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market