Global aviation MRO demand reached $136 billion in 2025, up 8% from $126 billion in 2024, and spending is projected to approach $193 billion by the end of the decade -- nearly double the pre-pandemic 2019 level -- according to Oliver Wyman's Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2026-2036.

The active in-service commercial aircraft fleet stood at approximately 34,600 units in 2026 and is forecast to grow to 45,000 units by 2035, a compound annual growth rate of 3%. Narrowbody aircraft are driving the largest share of that expansion, with a projected CAGR of 4.5% -- pushing narrowbodies from 60% of the global fleet in 2026 to 70% by 2035. Widebody types are forecast to grow at a more modest 2.4% CAGR over the same period.

Engines represent the largest single segment of MRO spending, with record engine MRO demand growth projected across the next decade as aging CFM56 and V2500 fleets drive shop visit volumes while newer LEAP and GTF engines enter their first major maintenance cycles. Aircraft orders placed in 2025 totaled more than 1,600 units, with lessors accounting for over 400 orders, adding further pipeline pressure on MRO capacity.

Labor and material shortages remain the leading supply chain challenge for MRO operators in 2026, joined by a new entrant -- geopolitical instability and tariff exposure -- which jumped to the second-highest disruption category in this year's survey data.

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Source: Oliver Wyman -- https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.html