Global aircraft maintenance spending is running at record levels and shows little sign of cooling, according to market forecasts from Oliver Wyman and Aviation Week. MRO demand reached 136 billion dollars in 2025, an 8 percent increase from 126 billion dollars the year before, and commercial aftermarket revenue is projected at 139 billion dollars in 2026.

Engine work is the dominant category. Engine spending is expected to claim a 53 percent share of the 2026 commercial aftermarket, reflecting both the cost of overhauls and the volume of shop visits tied to newer engine programs. That concentration explains why maintenance providers across the United States are adding engine test cells and repair bays.

The longer view points higher. Spending is expected to approach 193 billion dollars by the end of the decade, nearly double the 2019 level, before settling into a growth rate of about 2.7 percent a year through 2035, when the forecast puts the market near 156 billion dollars in inflation-adjusted terms.

An aging global fleet is the primary driver. Older aircraft need more frequent maintenance and more replacement parts, and that demand has pushed up prices for both components and labor, extending a maintenance supercycle that began after the pandemic. Forecasters flag labor shortages and supply chain constraints as the main headwinds keeping costs elevated and slowing a return to pre-pandemic conditions.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.html