Global aviation maintenance spending is on track to approach $140 billion in 2026, extending a supercycle that has run since the pandemic, according to an Oliver Wyman market forecast. Demand reached $136 billion in 2025, an 8% increase from $126 billion in 2024.

The trajectory points sharply higher over the next decade. Oliver Wyman projects MRO spending will near $193 billion by 2036, close to double the 2019 level. The firm attributes the sustained expansion to an aging global aircraft fleet that requires more frequent repairs, compounded by unexpected durability problems on several next-generation engine platforms that have pulled aircraft into shops earlier than planned.

Rising demand has driven up prices for both parts and labor. Labor rate inflation has settled at 5.5% to 6.0% across most maintenance categories, a pace that raises operating costs for carriers and independent shops alike. The pricing pressure has helped extend the supercycle by making capacity expansion slower and more expensive.

Survey respondents identified labor shortages, material shortages, geopolitical instability, and tariffs as the leading disruptors facing the sector. The combination has created a market where demand outstrips available shop capacity, allowing established maintenance providers to command premium rates and longer contract commitments through the forecast period.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.html