A new 10-year forecast from Oliver Wyman shows the global maintenance, repair and overhaul market climbing sharply as airlines lean harder on an aging fleet. Global MRO demand reached 136 billion dollars in 2025, up 8 percent from 126 billion dollars in 2024, and the firm projects spending will approach 193 billion dollars by 2036, nearly double the 2019 level.

The pressure is coming from a widening gap between aircraft orders and deliveries. Oliver Wyman counted about 17,000 unfilled aircraft orders on the books at the start of 2026, a backlog that would take more than 12 years to clear at current production rates. Airbus holds 49 percent of that order book and Boeing 38 percent, and both manufacturers have fallen short of their own production targets. Airbus produced 54 A320-family jets a month at the end of 2025 against a goal of 75 by 2027, while Boeing ended 2025 at a 42-per-month 737 rate after the FAA approved the increase, short of its 57-per-month target for 2026.

With new aircraft delayed, the global in-service fleet is aging, averaging nearly thirteen years old in 2025, about a year and a half older than in 2024. Oliver Wyman projects the fleet will grow from roughly 30,000 aircraft in 2026 to about 41,000 by 2036, a 3.2 percent compound annual growth rate. Meanwhile, global airline revenue topped 1 trillion dollars for the first time in 2025 on record passenger demand of 5.2 billion travelers.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.html