Global maintenance, repair and overhaul demand reached $136 billion in 2025, an 8 percent increase over the $126 billion recorded in 2024, according to the Oliver Wyman Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast for 2026 through 2036. Spending is projected to approach $193 billion by the end of the decade, nearly double the 2019 level.

Labor supply is the binding constraint on that growth. Approximately 41 percent of certified mechanics in the United States are over 60 years old, and about 45,000 mechanics are expected to retire within the next decade. The forecast identifies a shortfall of 17,800 certified mechanics in the United States for 2025, widening to 22,000 by 2027. On an annual basis, Oliver Wyman projects a shortfall of between 12,000 and 18,000 aviation maintenance workers.

Wage data reflects that scarcity. Average maintenance labor rates have settled into annual growth of 5.5 to 6.0 percent, roughly double the pre-pandemic inflation baseline of approximately 3 percent. Sustained labor cost escalation at that rate compounds into a material share of total maintenance spend across a ten-year forecast window.

Regional patterns differ by fleet age. In North America, Western Europe and Africa, where fleets skew older, maintenance spending is expected to grow faster than fleet size.

Survey respondents ranked material and labor shortages and cost management as the leading disruptors. Geopolitical instability and tariffs, a new category in the current survey, entered directly at second place.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.html