Oliver Wyman's 2026 MRO Survey asked aviation executives to rank the disruptors most likely to affect maintenance, repair and overhaul over the next five years. More than 150 professionals responded, and 70 percent of them are based outside North America. The ranked results appear in a chart tracking the top categories from 2022 through 2026.

Material shortages hold first place for a second consecutive year. The category, which the survey introduced in 2025, covers shortages in both original equipment and aftermarket supply chains that delay deliveries of new aircraft and engines and extend shop visit turnaround times. Geopolitical instability and tariffs, a new category this year, entered at second. The maintenance technician labor shortage ranks third and has stayed in the top three for five years running. Labor and material cost management ranks fourth.

More than half of all respondents cited each of the top four factors as likely major disruptors. Slightly more than a third cited adoption of generative artificial intelligence and changes to fleet plans.

The U.S. figures sit behind the labor ranking. Oliver Wyman forecasts a maintenance labor shortfall of 17,800 in 2025, rising to 22,000 in 2027. U.S. aviation maintenance technician schools grew from 172 to 208 over the past decade, and women make up less than 3 percent of certificated mechanics.

The survey also sizes the market. Global MRO spend exceeded US$136 billion in 2025, up 8 percent from 2024, and is forecast to approach US$193 billion by the end of the decade. North American labor rate increases for engine work reached 6.4 percent, compared with 7.4 percent in Europe.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2026/apr/mro-survey-2026.pdf