A ten year outlook for the global military aircraft fleet projects sustainment spending as a growing share of defense aviation budgets, driven by the same aging dynamic reshaping the commercial aftermarket.

The assessment covers fleet composition, expected retirements, and the support spending required to keep aircraft mission capable across the forecast window. Military operators face a version of the problem confronting airlines. Replacement programs run behind schedule, service lives extend past original design assumptions, and the maintenance burden per airframe rises as structures and systems accumulate flight hours.

The analysis sits alongside the commercial fleet forecast produced by the same research group, now in its 26th annual edition covering the ten year outlook for commercial airline fleets and the MRO market. Read together, the two datasets describe a maintenance sector where demand growth is decoupled from new aircraft deliveries.

That decoupling changes capital allocation for repair providers. Facilities that invested in capability for newer aircraft types face slower ramp than expected, while shops holding certification and tooling for legacy platforms find sustained demand for work that forecasts once assumed would taper. Technician skill sets follow the same pattern, with experience on older systems retaining commercial value longer than workforce plans anticipated.

Supply chain constraints appear across both the military and commercial datasets as a persistent cost and schedule variable rather than a temporary condition tied to any single disruption event.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-military-aircraft-fleet-and-sustainment-outlook.html