Total commercial MRO sales are projected to post a low-double-digit increase in 2026, according to the latest quarterly MRO survey from RBC Capital Markets reported by Aviation Week Network.

The engine segment, the largest single slice of aftermarket spending, is forecast to grow at a mid-single-digit rate over the same period. New aircraft deliveries are climbing while retirements stay low, keeping older and maintenance-intensive airframes in service and sustaining demand across shops.

Traffic data underpins the spending outlook. IATA figures cited in the report project annual revenue passenger kilometers climbing 4.9% in 2026, down slightly from 5.2% in 2025. Capacity, a closer proxy for maintenance demand, is set to rise 4.7% year over year against 4.9% a year earlier. IATA identified the primary growth inhibitors as "persistent capacity constraints, including delays in aircraft deliveries, maintenance backlogs, and labor shortages."

RBC framed the constraint picture as favorable for providers. "We believe that supply chain constraints and the pace of new aircraft and engine deliveries will continue to drive a risk-averse focus for the airlines and MROs," the firm wrote in its analysis, adding that lead times have shown no significant improvement and inventory levels remain relatively low.

Among more than 40 survey respondents, spare parts availability and the pace of new aircraft deliveries drew the most concern. More than 50% flagged each issue among their top three factors influencing growth in the first half of 2026. Tariff and macroeconomic worries ranked mid-pack, and the survey found no evidence of meaningful parts over-buying in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Source: Aviation Week Network - https://aviationweek.com/mro/aircraft-propulsion/daily-memo-mro-growth-rate-may-slow-bit-2026-good-times-are-still-rolling