Oliver Wyman's 2026 MRO survey ranks material and labor shortages and cost management as the top disruptors facing aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul over the next five years. Geopolitical instability and tariffs entered the survey as a new category and rose straight to second place. Generative AI adoption rounded out the top five.

The global MRO market exceeded $136 billion in 2025, up 8 percent over 2024. Oliver Wyman expects spending to approach $193 billion by the end of the decade, nearly double the 2019 level. The firm describes the period as an extended super cycle that combines aging fleets with durability challenges on newer aircraft.

Material cost inflation outpaced expectations by 100 to 200 basis points per segment in 2025. About 90 percent of respondents report tariff impacts, mostly on component purchases, repairs, and engine overhauls. Narrowbody engine turnaround times now regularly run 180 to 200 days or more, and more than half of respondents expect no improvement within three years.

Labor rate inflation has settled at 5.5 to 6.0 percent across most categories, compared with about 3.0 percent before the pandemic. Two-thirds of respondents say finding aircraft technicians and mechanics is moderately to very challenging, and the survey notes that the number of certified mechanics in the United States is not keeping pace with demand.

On AI, 58 percent of respondents say their companies remain at the experimental stage, while two-thirds report value at or above expectations. More than 150 aviation professionals took part, and 70 percent of respondents' companies are based primarily outside North America.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/apr/aviation-mro-labor-and-material-supply-chain-paradigm.html