The US and broader North American aviation industry is heading toward a sharp shortage of certified aircraft mechanics, according to industry workforce data summarized in a 2026 analysis. North America is projected to face a shortfall of 40,000 aviation mechanics by 2028 as demand for maintenance outpaces the supply of trained workers.

The gap is already visible in the United States. Research points to a shortfall of about 17,800 certified mechanics in the US in 2025, a deficit expected to widen to roughly 22,000 by 2027. The shortfall reflects both rising maintenance demand from older fleets and a wave of retirements among experienced technicians.

Demographics are a major driver. About 41 percent of certified mechanics in the US are over 60 years old, and an estimated 45,000 mechanics are expected to retire over the next decade. As the most experienced workers leave, they take specialized knowledge with them, and the industry has struggled to attract and retain enough younger technicians to fill the openings.

The workforce gap carries direct cost consequences. The supply-demand imbalance has accelerated wage inflation across maintenance operations, contributing to labor rate growth well above historical norms. Carriers and repair stations are responding with expanded apprenticeships, partnerships with technical schools, and higher pay to compete for a limited pool of certified mechanics.

Source: Leeham News and Analysis - https://leehamnews.com/2026/05/06/resources-this-is-your-industry-speaking-by-the-numbers-workforce-shortfalls/