Oliver Wyman's 2026 Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast identifies North America as the world's largest aviation market and one of three regions where maintenance spending will outpace fleet growth over the next decade. Western Europe and Africa are the other two, and the shared factor is fleet age.

Global MRO demand reached almost $136 billion in 2025, an 8 percent increase over the $126 billion recorded in 2024. The firm expects the figure to reach about $140 billion in 2026 and nearly $193 billion by 2036, roughly double the 2019 level. Spending in 2025 ran 30 percent above 2019.

Engine maintenance holds the largest share of MRO spending and grows at 3.3 percent a year through 2036. Line maintenance grows fastest at 3.4 percent, tracking aircraft utilization. Component maintenance grows at 3.2 percent and reaches an estimated $33 billion by the end of the forecast. Airframe volumes stay comparatively stable, with the first heavy check on the Boeing 737 MAX predicted around 2028.

North America fleet growth is modest and centers on replacing older aircraft with new-generation models. The region has more than 4,500 new deliveries planned across the forecast period, and its share of the global fleet declines as other regions expand faster.

The global in-service commercial fleet stood near 30,000 aircraft in early 2026 and is projected to reach about 41,000 by 2036, a compound annual rate of 3.2 percent. That trajectory lags pre-pandemic forecasts by roughly six years and represents a shortfall of more than 6,000 aircraft.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2026/february/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.pdf