Oliver Wyman's annual Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast is one of the most widely cited research publications in the commercial aviation maintenance industry. The forecast covers global and regional projections for fleet size, aircraft retirements, shop visit volume, and total MRO spending over a ten-year horizon.
The 2026 edition reflects a market benefiting from sustained post-pandemic traffic recovery and structural effects of supply chain disruptions at aircraft manufacturers. With Boeing and Airbus delivering new aircraft at rates below airline orders, the average age of the commercial fleet in service has increased, directly raising demand for scheduled and unscheduled maintenance events.
Engine maintenance spending is projected to grow as the large population of LEAP-1A, LEAP-1B, and Pratt and Whitney GTF engines installed since 2016 begins reaching its first performance restoration shop visit intervals. These engine workscopes are expected to add substantial demand to already-constrained engine overhaul capacity worldwide.
The forecast also models labor availability as a primary constraint on MRO market capacity in North America and Europe. Certified aviation mechanics and engine technicians are in short supply relative to projected demand, and training pipeline investments will require years to produce qualified workforce additions. This labor dynamic is expected to support MRO pricing and margins through the early 2030s.
Source: Oliver Wyman -- https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/industries/aviation/mro.html