Oliver Wyman's Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2026-2036 puts global maintenance, repair and overhaul demand at $136 billion in 2025, up 8% from $126 billion in 2024. Spending is expected to approach $193 billion by the end of the decade, nearly double the 2019 level. The consultancy projects MRO demand to rise at a 3.3% compound annual rate from 2026 to 2036, with engine MRO the largest and fastest-growing segment.

The global in-service fleet, excluding Russia, stands at about 30,000 aircraft and is forecast to reach roughly 41,000 by 2036, a 3.2% annual rate. Global aircraft production ended 2025 at 24% below 2019 levels, and the average fleet age approached thirteen years, about a year and a half older than in 2024. Older aircraft need more maintenance and parts, which has pushed up prices for both parts and labor. The report says maintenance spend in North America, Western Europe and Africa will outpace fleet growth because those regions operate older fleets.

Labor figures focus on the United States. About 41% of certified US mechanics are over 60 years old, and about 45,000 mechanics are expected to retire over the next decade.

Capacity limits also affect the market. Engine technical issues and shortages of composites and titanium are tying up schedules, and delayed maintenance from the pandemic and the 737 grounding between 2019 and 2023 has created a bow wave that lengthens turnaround times and moves pricing.

Airbus holds 49% of the order book and Boeing 38%, with about 17,000 unfilled orders at the start of 2026.

Source: Oliver Wyman - https://oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2026/feb/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-2026-2036.html