The U.S. Energy Information Administration's July 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook projected the fastest electricity demand growth in decades, with Texas and the mid-Atlantic leading the increase. The chart tracks sales of electricity to ultimate customers in selected regions from 2020 through the 2026 forecast, in billion kilowatthours.

EIA forecast U.S. retail electricity sales to grow 2.2% per year in both 2025 and 2026. Average growth from 2020 to 2024 was 0.8% per year. Demand had changed little between 2005 and 2020. EIA attributed the new growth mainly to the commercial and industrial sectors, including proposed data centers and large manufacturing facilities.

Regional figures from the analysis:

- ERCOT, the grid operator for most of Texas, was forecast to see demand rise 7% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 as large data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities come online. - The West South Central Census Division, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas, was forecast to grow 5% in 2025 and 9% in 2026. - PJM, which covers 13 states, was forecast to grow 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.

Many proposed data center projects are concentrated in the ERCOT and PJM regions. EIA noted that the timing of their initial operations is uncertain, which affects the forecast. Northern Virginia holds the highest concentration of data centers in the world, according to analysis prepared for the Commonwealth of Virginia.

EIA's September 2026 outlook continues to cite data center development as a driver of demand in the West South Central region, where it expects record U.S. electricity generation of 4,368 billion kilowatthours in 2026.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65844