The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that electricity used by data center servers will rise across the commercial building stock through 2050, according to its Annual Energy Outlook 2026, released April 8, 2026. By 2050, server consumption alone reaches between 446 billion and 818 billion kilowatthours across the cases EIA modeled. The top of the range comes from the High Electricity Demand case, which assumes faster growth in server power draw and installed server stock.

Servers accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025. EIA projects that data center server electricity use grows to between 22% and 33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across its cases. Standalone data centers, which EIA classifies in the other buildings category, show a larger increase than all other data center rooms combined. In the High Electricity Demand case, servers in those standalone facilities consume 581 billion kilowatthours in 2050.

Cooling adds to the load. EIA assumes that space cooling in data center floorspace is as much as 2.9 times as energy intensive as in non-data center floorspace. In the High Electricity Demand case, space cooling electricity use in 2050 is 84 billion kilowatthours higher than in the Counterfactual Baseline case. Commercial sector electricity intensity first exceeds the 2003 historical high of 14.9 kilowatthours per square foot in the 2031 to 2032 period.

The cases differ on efficiency. The Counterfactual Baseline assumes that after 2040 servers become more efficient, cutting average annual operational power draw by 10% every three years. The High Electricity Demand case makes no such assumption and has AI servers making up a larger share of installed stock over time. EIA models server demand with an essentially flat load shape and now reports data center servers separately from the broader commercial computing category.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67704