US grid operators are flagging reliability risk as data center electricity demand climbs faster than new generation. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation has warned of elevated risk of summer electricity shortfalls across all three of its regions this year and beyond, citing the pace of load growth against available supply.
The pressure is concentrated in fast growing grid regions. PJM, the largest US grid operator, could add 31 gigawatts of data center load over the next five years, roughly 3 gigawatts more than the capacity expected from new generation over the same period. That mismatch between incoming demand and new supply sits at the center of the reliability concern.
Longer term projections show the trend continuing. BloombergNEF estimates US data center power demand could reach 106 gigawatts by 2035, driven by artificial intelligence and high performance computing workloads that run continuously and draw dense power.
Utilities have responded by sharply raising their forecasts. The total of five year future summer peak demand growth published by utilities rose from 38 gigawatts in 2023 to 128 gigawatts in 2024. The figures point to a period where grid planning, transmission upgrades, and new generation must accelerate to keep pace with data center load and maintain summer reliability.
Source: Utility Dive -- https://www.utilitydive.com/news/us-data-center-power-demand-could-reach-106-gw-by-2035-bloombergnef/806972/