A study commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission projects that reliability across the PJM Interconnection could deteriorate sharply by 2030 if data center load continues to grow at its current pace. Utility Dive reported the findings on September 15, 2026.
The study, prepared by Synapse Energy Economics with Mondre Energy and Aspen Technologies, models the loss of load expectation, the industry measure of how often a grid runs short of supply. Planners target 0.1, or one outage day in ten years. The reference scenario puts PJM at 0.59 by 2030. The worst case scenario reaches 13.20, which would mean more than 13 loss of load days a year. Modeling covers 2027 through 2030, and only a scenario with no new data centers meets the planning target.
PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank said supply and demand are moving out of balance. PJM spokesperson Jeff Shields pointed to the Ratepayer Protection Pledge that data center developers have taken.
The study also tracks a reversal in the state role as an electricity exporter. Net exports are modeled to fall from roughly 91 terawatt hours in 2025 to 69 by 2035 and 38 by 2040. Under the high load case Pennsylvania flips to a net importer of about 5 terawatt hours.
Commissioners voted unanimously Thursday on two motions, one covering emergency curtailment rules and one setting a technical conference on data center cost allocation. An August executive order from the governor office gives preferential permitting to projects above 25MW that bring new supply, and the Department of Energy has committed to keeping some coal plants running past their retirement dates.
Source: Utility Dive - https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjms-reliability-could-start-failing-by-2030-if-data-center-growth-continu/830405/