The Energy Information Administration projects that US nuclear generating capacity stays largely flat across most of its forecast cases, even as the fleet continues to supply about 18 percent of national electricity in 2026. The agency released nuclear generation data on June 25, current through April, drawing on reactor-level records it has maintained monthly since 2003.

The flat capacity outlook masks growing interest in new build. In the EIA Low Oil and Gas Supply case, nuclear generation rises meaningfully as higher natural gas prices make new reactors economical in the 2040s. That scenario illustrates how fuel economics, rather than policy alone, could shift the long-run trajectory of the fleet.

The broader generation mix continues to tilt elsewhere in the near term. To meet rising demand, installed generating capacity across all sources grows between 50 and 90 percent by 2050 in the agency cases, with natural gas, solar, and wind supplying most of the growth and accounting for a combined 80 percent of generation in most scenarios by mid-century.

Nuclear output is expected to stay relatively stable in both the United States and the European Union over the forecast horizon, while China adds capacity rapidly. For US planners, the steady share underscores nuclear role as a reliable base that neither shrinks nor expands quickly, leaving restarts, uprates, and small modular reactors as the primary levers for near-term growth in carbon-free baseload power.

Source: EIA - https://www.eia.gov/nuclear/generation/