The World Gold Council estimates central banks purchased roughly 244 tons of gold during the first quarter of 2026. Official net purchase reports filed for the same period total just 16 tons, leaving a gap of more than 200 tons between estimated and disclosed activity.

That reporting gap has become a central input for price forecasts. Unreported buying remained elevated through the quarter, which points to continued large scale accumulation that has not appeared in published statistics.

Central banks bought 863 tonnes globally during 2025, far above the pre 2022 annual average of 400 to 500 tonnes. Forecasts for 2026 cluster between 750 and 850 tonnes, with J.P. Morgan projecting around 755 tonnes.

Retail and investment demand tracked the same direction. Global gold bar and coin demand reached 474 tons in the first quarter, a 42 percent increase. Combined with central bank purchases and higher prices, total demand value set a record at $193 billion. Jewelry demand moved opposite, falling 23 percent year over year as record prices pushed buyers out of the market.

Price levels explain that split. The London Bullion Market Association afternoon gold price averaged a record $4,873 in the first quarter of 2026, with a high of $5,405 an ounce in January. J.P. Morgan projects gold approaching $6,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 and $6,300 by the end of 2027, with a revised full year 2026 average forecast of $5,243.

Source: World Gold Council - https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2026/central-banks