Gold traded as high as $5,595.47 an ounce intraday on January 29 and as low as $3,959.33 on June 24, a swing of more than 1,600 dollars inside six months, according to the World Gold Council mid-year outlook.

The LBMA Gold Price PM set 12 record highs before reversing, peaking at $5,405.00 on January 29 and bottoming at $4,001.80 on June 25. Measured on that benchmark, gold closed the first half down about 7 percent and sat roughly 25 percent below its record. Even after the pullback it ranked among the stronger performing major asset classes over the trailing 12 months.

Volatility accounts for much of the move. Realized 30-day volatility on spot gold climbed above 50 percent early in the year before easing under 30 percent, still well above the 20-year average of 17 percent. The council's return attribution model assigns 24 percent of first-half price variability to momentum, 17 percent to risk and uncertainty, 14 percent to currency effects and 12 percent to economic expansion.

For the second half, the council's valuation framework points to a range of plus or minus 5 percent around $4,100 an ounce if macro conditions hold, against an uptrend scenario of 5 to 20 percent upside and a consolidation scenario of 5 to 15 percent downside. US growth was forecast at 2.1 percent for 2026, with domestic inflation peaking near 3.9 percent in the second quarter.

Official sector buying remains a support. Central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes a year since 2022, and the council estimates each 20 to 30 tonne move above the long-run 600 tonne average corresponds to a 1 percent shift in price.

Source: World Gold Council - https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2026