Aurora Innovation set a target of more than 30,000 driverless trucks and more than $5 billion in annual revenue by 2030, according to plans the company outlined at its investor day and discussed at a later industry forum.
The company expects to end 2026 with 200 trucks in operation. It projects more than 1,000 trucks and $200 million in revenue in 2027, followed by positive free cash flow on a run-rate basis in 2028 with 7,500 trucks on the road.
Most of the growth is planned through a Driver-as-a-Service model, in which carriers own and operate the trucks and pay $0.85 or more per mile. Aurora intends to cap its all-inclusive Transportation-as-a-Service model at about 500 trucks because that model requires more capital.
Chief Financial Officer David Maday said the 30,000-truck figure is modest against the more than 2 million trucks on U.S. roads today. Aurora expects to operate in a market of 150 billion vehicle miles traveled by 2030, out of roughly 200 billion in U.S. trucking.
Some targets have moved. Aurora now expects positive gross profit on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027, later than its earlier goal of the end of 2026, which the company linked to a slightly slower fleet ramp. Its long-term gross margin target is 60% by 2030, down from the 70% it had set for 2028. Maday cited supply chain headwinds among the factors the company is accounting for.
Carrier Werner, which already runs driverless loads with Aurora, said the remaining work centers on contracts and economics. Werner executive Daragh Mahon said the company is negotiating costs actively and sees long-haul, middle-mile runs of 500 to 2,000 miles as the best fit for the technology, particularly on routes where drivers are hard to hire.
Source: Trucking Dive - https://www.truckingdive.com/news/aurora-targets-30k-driverless-trucks-5b-revenue-in-2030/833800/