The Accepted SONAR Truckload Volume Index, which measures the volume of truckload tenders carriers accept under existing rate agreements, averaged about 9,800 last week while the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index hovered near 13.5 percent, according to FreightWaves.

The pairing is what makes the current cycle unusual. Accepted volumes are close to where they stood in 2019, lower than most of the past four years. Rejection rates in 2019 ran below 5 percent for most of the year, and they were under 6 percent as recently as last fall. Similar freight volume is now moving through a market that is more than twice as tight.

FreightWaves reads the combination as evidence that this cycle is supply driven. Rising accepted volumes paired with falling rejections point to capacity growth or improved market efficiency. Flat accepted tenders paired with rising rejections signal capacity erosion, the pattern seen in October of 2024 and 2025. Both indexes fell together in July, which reflected weaker demand rather than capacity expansion.

Carrier financial data supports the supply side reading. Second quarter 2026 earnings reports showed no evidence of fleet growth, with most carriers reporting annual declines in active units. Class 8 orders are higher this year, though that comes off a weak 2025 comparison, and both ACT Research and FTR attribute the increase to fleet replacement.

Supply side corrections move slowly. The oversupply that followed 2020 took more than three years to work through the market.

Source: FreightWaves - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/supply-driven-trucking-market-cycle-explained-in-the-data