The American Trucking Associations projects a driver shortfall of roughly 82,000 in 2026, a gap that has widened steadily since the pandemic. Some independent estimates place the current shortage closer to 60,000, with projections reaching 160,000 by 2028 as older drivers retire faster than new entrants arrive.

Freight volume data shows a softer top line. Trucks moved 11.27 billion tons of freight in 2024, and the ATA Truck Tonnage Index has moved unevenly through 2026, falling 2 percent in May, holding flat in April, and rising 0.3 percent in March. The mixed readings point to demand that has stabilized without a strong rebound.

Capacity signals tell a tighter story. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index tracked by FreightWaves SONAR reached 14.2 percent in March 2026, up from 8.5 percent a year earlier, indicating that carriers are turning down more contracted loads in favor of higher-paying freight.

Regulatory changes are thinning the driver pool further. A federal rule that took effect in March 2026 bars certain visa and license categories from obtaining or renewing commercial driver licenses. Texas reported a 31 percent drop in CDL renewals in April compared with the same month in 2025, and California tracked a similar 26 percent decline. Together the figures suggest capacity constraints are building faster than freight demand alone would explain.

Source: American Trucking Associations - https://www.trucking.org/news-insights/ata-releases-updated-driver-shortage-report-and-forecast