The gap between truckload contract rates and spot market rates compressed sharply in early 2026, narrowing from $0.39 per mile a year ago to just $0.11 by March -- a $0.28 contraction that reflects how fast the freight market has repriced, according to FreightWaves rate data.

This compression matters because contract rates traditionally carry a premium over spot rates, giving shippers cost predictability in exchange for volume commitments. When spot rates rise fast enough to nearly match contract rates, carriers lose the financial incentive to honor lower-priced contracts and redirect equipment to higher-paying spot loads -- a dynamic that drove significant service failures during the 2021-2022 freight surge.

Spot rates climbed from $1.65 per mile in November 2025 to $2.01 in February 2026, then continued rising to approximately $2.80 per mile nationally by May 2026. Contract rates followed with a four-month consecutive increase streak, settling near $2.12 per mile. The math shows carriers capturing meaningful margin improvement across both markets simultaneously.

Total U.S. rail carloads averaged 230,401 per week in March 2026 -- the strongest March result since 2019 -- while intermodal unit volumes lagged carloads in the most recent reporting period. The divergence suggests shippers are returning truck loads to rail at a slower rate than expected, keeping pressure on truckload capacity.

Source: FreightWaves -- https://www.freightwaves.com/news/contract-premium-shrinks-as-truckload-market-reprices-higher