Intermodal spot rates have not kept pace with the surge in truckload pricing through early 2026, but analysts expect that gap to narrow as the year progresses. Truckload spot rates including fuel have held near 2.80 dollars per mile nationally, up roughly 23 percent year over year, while intermodal pricing has lagged the move. The divergence reflects how quickly the over-the-road market repriced once truck capacity tightened.

Container-on-rail volume has held firm, supported by import flows through US ports and the cost advantage rail offers on long-haul lanes. As truckload rates rise, the economics of shifting freight to intermodal improve, which analysts say should pull more volume onto the rails and lift intermodal pricing later in 2026. Service reliability and transit times remain factors shippers weigh when comparing modes.

The repricing also shows up in the spread between contract and spot rates. Contract premiums that protected shippers during the long downturn are shrinking as the spot market climbs, pushing the two rate types closer together. That compression typically signals a market shifting leverage toward carriers and rail providers. Freight buyers planning budgets for the back half of the year are factoring in higher costs across both truckload and intermodal as capacity stays constrained and seasonal demand builds toward peak.

Source: FreightWaves - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/intermodal-spot-rates-havent-kept-pace-with-truckings-spot-market-surge-but-thats-about-to-change-in-2026