FreightWaves SONAR data tracking the National Truckload Index shows sustained spot rate elevation through spring 2026, with Roadcheck enforcement week producing one of the sharpest weekly rate moves of the year. Dry van spot rates climbed 10.5% to $2.22 per mile during the May 12-14 inspection period, reefer rates surged 33.3% to $2.68 per mile, and flatbed rates increased 3.7% to $2.80 per mile.

The rate shape mirrors the 2021 pattern, when enforcement-driven capacity exits preceded a sustained rally that ran through the remainder of the year. FreightWaves SONAR tender rejection rates have increased above prior-year levels consistently since late 2025, reflecting a market where supply reduction is driving rate performance rather than demand growth.

Zach Strickland, FreightWaves market expert, notes that the 2026 freight market has seen supply continuously exiting throughout the year, including through immigration enforcement actions affecting commercial driver license holders and through carriers unable to sustain operations at the low rates that prevailed during the 2022-2024 freight recession. The combination of deferred maintenance backlogs and ongoing capacity discipline positions the second half of 2026 for continued tightening above the seasonal norms seen in prior years.

Source: FreightWaves -- https://www.freightwaves.com/news/what-roadcheck-week-means-for-freight-market