The US Energy Information Administration projects that refinery closures and rising consumption will reduce US petroleum inventories in 2026, tightening the supply cushion that fuels the trucking and aviation sectors. The agency expects inventories of motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel to fall to their lowest levels since 2000.

Seven major refinery closures and conversions since 2019 have removed roughly 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day of crude processing capacity, with the LyondellBasell Houston and Phillips 66 Los Angeles shutdowns accounting for about 400,000 barrels per day on their own. The EIA estimates total US refining capacity contracted to about 17.9 million barrels per day by the end of 2025, a roughly 3 percent reduction driven by closures.

The supply picture is tightest for jet fuel, where the agency forecasts days of supply will fall to 21 days in 2026, the lowest reading since 1963. Lower inventory buffers leave fuel markets more sensitive to outages and demand spikes, which can translate into sharper price swings for diesel and jet fuel that directly affect freight and air cargo costs. Renewable diesel and biodiesel are projected to make up about 9 percent of distillate consumption in 2026.

Source: U.S. EIA - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64644