Seven major refinery closures and conversions in the United States since 2019 have permanently removed more than 1.2 million barrels per day of crude processing capacity, according to Energy Information Administration data. Two additional closures now pending will reduce output further, and the agency projects that inventories for the three largest transportation fuels will decline through 2026 as consumption grows against a smaller refining base.

Operating rates at the remaining facilities have been pushed near their practical ceiling. Utilization of operable refinery capacity ran close to 90 percent through January and February 2026, roughly 5 percentage points above typical seasonal averages, with the weekly series moving above 92 percent at points. Refinery runs averaged 16.67 million barrels per day in January.

The narrow margin between operating rates and maximum capacity leaves little cushion for unplanned events. Winter Storm Fern triggered a series of unplanned outages in late January 2026, producing a measurable dip in national refinery runs before operations recovered.

For fleets, the capacity picture connects directly to fuel cost volatility. A refining system running near maximum utilization transmits supply disruptions to retail diesel prices faster and with larger amplitude than one carrying spare capacity, because there is no idle throughput available to replace lost volume.

Analysts expect absolute refinery runs to ease later in 2026 as planned closures and maintenance cycles take effect, though favorable margins should keep operating rates elevated relative to historical norms.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64644