Multiple key trucking indicators tracked by FreightWaves' SONAR platform are moving in the same direction, suggesting the long freight market bottom may be ending after more than three years of soft rates and squeezed carrier margins.

The SONAR National Truckload Index, a seven-day average of spot rates, reached $2.80 per mile, a level not seen since the market's decline from its 2022 peak above $3.50. Through 2023 and 2024, spot rates had settled into the low $2.00s, making the current reading a meaningful firming of the rate floor.

The Outbound Tender Rejection Index, which measures how often contracted carriers decline loads in favor of better-paying opportunities, stood at 13.40%, well above its recent averages. For most of 2023, rejection rates sat near historic lows as carriers accepted nearly every load offered. Rising rejections typically indicate carriers are regaining pricing leverage.

On the demand side, the Outbound Tender Volume Index registered around 10,110, slightly below its historical average of 11,731, indicating freight demand has stabilized rather than collapsed. Meanwhile, SONAR's Carrier Details data shows net contraction in active trucking authorities, with more carriers exiting the market than entering after years of new-entrant waves.

FreightWaves analysis notes that market breakouts historically occur when rates stabilize and climb, rejections increase and capacity contracts simultaneously, and all three conditions are currently present. The next 60 to 120 days are expected to show whether the shift holds.

Source: FreightWaves -- https://www.freightwaves.com/news/dont-look-but-we-might-be-on-the-brink-of-a-market-breakout