Truckload spot rates broke to their strongest levels since March 2022 in spring 2026. The FreightWaves SONAR National Truckload Index reached $3.10 per mile, while flatbed rates climbed to $3.95 per mile, a record high by that measure. Flatbed tender rejection rates held above 40% for consecutive weeks, a level consistent with severe capacity tightness.

Long-haul contract rates have risen approximately 8% since last fall, compressing the gap between spot and contract markets that shippers exploited during the freight recession. When that gap closes further, shippers who deferred contract rate negotiations face sharply higher costs at renewal.

Intermodal is expected to benefit from the tightening as well. Freight railroads reported their strongest March rail carload volumes since 2019, with chemical shipments hitting a record weekly average of 35,580 carloads. The convergence of road and rail capacity tightening signals a broad freight cycle shift rather than a segment-specific blip.

Trade data adds context. The U.S. goods trade deficit in the first two months of 2026 ran 55% below the same period in 2025, driven by a surge in capital goods imports now comprising a record 41% of total goods imports. Capital goods move heavily by flatbed, which helps explain the disproportionate tightness in that segment.