The national Outbound Tender Volume Index, which tracks truckload demand, hit an all time low for the month of October at a reading of 9,311, roughly 19 percent below the prior year and 15 percent below 2023 for the same period, according to SONAR data compiled by FreightWaves. Despite that drop in demand, tender rejection rates and spot rates moved higher rather than falling in step, a pattern that points to capacity leaving the truckload market faster than freight volume is declining.

Long haul demand, defined as loads moving more than 800 miles, fell about 30 percent year over year over the trailing 18 months as more of that freight shifted to rail and intermodal service. The Long Haul Tender Rejection Index climbed to 12.5 percent, the highest level recorded since May 2024, even though the surge lacked the accompanying volume spike that drove the earlier peak. Motor carrier data drawn from FMCSA filings showed capacity continuing to exit the market at a rapid pace during the same stretch, a trend linked to a multi year freight downturn rather than any single short term event.

Regional imbalances compound the picture. Outbound freight volume in Los Angeles consistently exceeds inbound volume, forcing carriers to reposition equipment into the market to keep freight moving, while backhaul markets such as Lakeland, Florida carry nearly twice as much outbound freight as inbound, keeping rates in that corridor among the lowest nationally.

Source: FreightWaves - https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckload-capacity-is-falling-faster-than-demand