Truckload all-in rates remain approximately 50 percent above year-ago levels despite recent pullbacks from earlier peaks, signaling a structural reset in freight pricing rather than a temporary cycle, according to weekly freight market data compiled by logistics provider NTG.

Spot rates have declined roughly 30 to 40 cents per mile over the past five weeks, but tender rejection rates, a measure of available capacity, tell a similar story of tightness: rejections have eased from a peak of 17.65 percent to 14.1 percent, yet remain well above the 4.75 percent baseline recorded a year earlier. Refrigerated freight rates remain especially elevated across the Midwest, the rural Northeast, and Northern California heading into peak season.

Fuel costs are compounding the pressure, with on-highway diesel holding at $5.348 per gallon as of early August. Meanwhile, broader economic indicators point to strengthening industrial demand: the ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 55.6 percent in July, up 2.3 percentage points from June and the highest reading since May 2022, with its Employment Index posting its first expansionary reading in nearly three years.

Parcel carriers are shifting strategy in response to these conditions. FedEx is closing 17 distribution centers under its Network 2.0 consolidation, eliminating an estimated 200 to 300 jobs, while UPS reported a 3.3 percent year-over-year volume decline as it deliberately exits lower-margin e-commerce freight in favor of healthcare and automotive shipments.

Source: NTG Freight - https://ntgfreight.com/resources/weekly-freight-trends-august-3-7-2026/