U.S. truckload capacity tightened sharply heading into 2026, with the national tender rejection rate climbing to a peak of 13.2 percent, well above the high points of the previous three years and far above the prior year peak of 9.4 percent, according to SONAR data from FreightWaves. The most recent reading eased to 10.6 percent as capacity returned.

The rebound was uneven by region. Ontario, California, the largest U.S. freight market, showed a tender rejection rate of just 4.1 percent. By equipment type the reefer segment ran tightest at 18.5 percent, ahead of dry van at 11.5 percent and flatbed at 9.0 percent.

Pricing followed capacity. The average spot rate, tracked by the SONAR National Truckload Index, surged from mid-December and entered 2026 at its highest level since the 2022 holiday season. SONAR placed its Pricing Power Index at 50, a balanced reading between carriers and shippers.

Demand stayed soft despite the rate strength. Tender volume in the most recent week ran 4 percent below the prior year, signaling that the tightening came largely from smaller carriers exiting the market rather than from a surge in freight.

Source: SONAR (FreightWaves) - https://gosonar.com/pricing-power-index/freight-market-begins-to-normalize-as-capacity-returns