Truckload spot rates are running well above year-ago levels in 2026, with national pricing including fuel holding near 2.80 dollars per mile. That marks a 23 percent increase from the 2.33 dollars per mile recorded a year earlier, and analysts expect spot rates to stay 20 to 25 percent above prior-year levels through the rest of the year.

The increase is driven primarily by supply-side tightening rather than a broad surge in demand. Capacity has been constrained by driver availability, stepped-up regulatory enforcement, and lower equipment replacement activity. The truckload market began tightening in the middle of 2025 as carrier exits finally caught up with freight demand.

Load rejection data confirms the shift. The rate of tender rejections is near 14 percent, a level not consistently seen since 2022. As carriers turn down more loads at contracted rates, shippers are pushed into the spot market, lifting pricing further.

Equipment categories are moving in step. The 2026 forecast for dry van cost per mile was raised to 8 percent year-over-year, and the refrigerated van forecast was lifted to 6 percent. Flatbed and reefer pricing also strengthened across the cycle. Contract rates, which lag spot pricing, rose again in April as sustained spot strength fed through to negotiated agreements. The data points to a freight market that has clearly turned from the prolonged soft conditions of the prior two years.

Source: Transport Topics - https://www.ttnews.com/articles/truckload-spot-rates